Can we trust the polls?

Tensions are high, the date draws nearer and nearer – the people must decide. And, while the people draw on their own personal experiences, listen to debates and track the media updates, they often also rely on the results of political polls to gauge the temperature ahead of the decision. The polls not only benefit the voters, it also benefits the elected as it gives a sense of what is important to the general public and also hints at how well a candidate is connecting to voters. But, can we trust the polls?

Political polls, simply put, are public opinion surveys. When done accurately, using valid and reliable data collection methodologies, public opinion polls provide a snapshot of the ‘public’s opinion’ during the moment the poll was taken – the results of the polls are subject to the mood at the time they are taken. Voter opinion is not constant. It is sporadic and can change from week to week during the heights of political battles as candidates pull on past occurrences and future promises in the nationwide courtship to gain political support. It is therefore the responsibility of each person to be able to assess the polls and determine their validity.

Can I trust these results?

To determine if the results can be trusted one needs to ask these important questions.

Who sponsored the polls?

Groups affiliated with campaigns or those which will largely gain from the outcomes of the elections usually have a stake in the outcome. With this in mind persons tend to rely on the results of polls conducted by objective groups with no benefits to be gained from either result.

When were the participants interviewed?

If the results are no longer relevant at the time the information is being released then this may mislead the public. As mentioned, voter opinion is sporadic. That being said, a respondent’s belief that the healthcare system is efficient may be vastly different if the question is asked amidst the pressures of the coronavirus pandemic.

What have they told us about the sample?

Do we know who was targeted? Did the researchers target the general population? Registered voters? Or, those of voting age? Was the sample scientifically chosen or were the respondents self-selected? Was the survey tool administered using an online survey method, thus excluding those without access to internet or digital literacy or was a mixed method used?

Do you know the actual questions?

Reliable polls often present to the public the actual questions which were asked to determine the results. The wording and order of the questions are integral. Do the questions seem to guide the respondent to a particular answer? The line of questioning and results can be manipulated to present a trend that does not truly exist or to even prompt respondents to only address the needs and desires of a particular subset of the population.

The simple answer is yes, we can still trust the polls. We must however ask the necessary questions to determine how valid and reliable the outcomes are.